Demo Dozen

HOW EASY IS IT TO STOP A RUMOR?

Everywhere you look, rumors abound: there are rumors surrounding the "true" meaning of company logos, government conspiracies, and celebrity "secrets," just to mention a few.  Many (if not most!) are untrue, yet that doesn't affect their spread.  Why is that?

 

Consider a scenario close to home.  Someone starts a rumor about you by saying something to a couple of friends.  They, in turn, each tell a couple friends of their own, who in turn tell a couple of their friends, and  . . . pretty soon, the whole school or town is abuzz with the rumor.  That, of course, is how rumors spread.

 

We’ve constructed a simulation for you to track the rate at which rumors spread. It incorporates two critical assumptions: first, you don't hear about the rumor until some days after it's begun to be spread; and, second, as contrasted with the rumormongers who are spreading second and third-hand information, you are obliged to track down the people who've heard and believe the rumor and personally convince them that the rumor is untrue.

 

Can You Stop the Rumor?

 

You may simulate many scenarios, involving different rates of rumor spread (how many each person tells and how long each person spreads the rumor), when you learn about the rumor, and the number of people you can personally convince to desist each day.                                 

 

An illustration of simulation output is shown below (Based on a scenario where you discover the rumor on Day 2; each rumormonger tells 1 additional person each day; and you personally convince 3 people each day to desist). Perhaps, with a different scenario, YOU will have better luck in stopping the rumor!