Demo Dozen

 

Global Population Change in the Twenty-First Century

With only occasional interruption, human history has been defined by continuous population growth.  Growing populations, as a positive force for change, have provided the impetus to exercise human ingenuity and inventiveness to settle the globe, to find new and better means to produce and distribute food, and to harness resources to sustain and improve the quality of human life.  Yet, for many, continued growth raises questions about future pressures and potential problems.

 

In projecting future human population growth, demographers observe that the magnitude of change will vary enormously between countries and regions.  To illustrate that point, consider three countries: the United States, Pakistan, and the small Central American nation of Guatemala.

 

Using current growth patterns, what would the next 150 years hold for these three countries in terms of population growth?

 

In this simulation, you will be using computer models (similar to those used by demographers) to project future growth based on three pieces of information: 1) Current Population; 2) Birth Rate (defined as the number of births annually per 1000 population); and 3) the Death Rate (similarly defined). The point of this simulation is to explore the implications of differing birth and death rates over time; ideally, the results may prove surprising.

 

Below is output from the simulation (with the names carefully omitted to prevent the “punch line” from being spoiled!) that suggests there will be significant changes in the future in the relative population sizes (in millions of individuals) of these three countries.