Government Case Studies
Demonstrating System Dynamics as a Valuable Approach to the Nonlinear Modeling of Human Dynamics: Bubonic and Pneumonic Plague (Contract #2002-H-726500-000).
Problem Statement: Contagious diseases can have significant human, economic, and social impacts on society. How the disease moves through a society influences people’s choices of behavioral responses. In turn those behavioral responses impact the course of the disease. We were asked to apply system dynamics modeling to explore and simulate the dynamic interplay (or feedback relationships) between 1) an outbreak of a virulent disease (plague: which can occur naturally or as an agent of bioterrorism) and 2) the likely behaviors that would both emerge from and contribute to the subsequent course of that outbreak.
Approach: We used our Ladder of Engagement to structure our exploration, including our collaboration with experts in relevant fields. We identified and developed:
- What we KNOW of the dynamics of the spread of plague (epidemiology of transmission, availability and effectiveness of medical interventions, and the role of human behaviors (flight, fight, and freeze) in affecting that transmission)?
- What we UNDERSTAND about the feedbacks between behavioral responses and the course of the disease through the population? How do the evolution of the outbreak itself and the population’s response to that outbreak mutually influence each other?
- How we can use the insights generated by that understanding to design and evaluate intervention strategies with which to INFLUENCE such an outbreak?
A report of the early work on this project is provided here.